Probability Roll

When the outcome of an event isn't tied to skill or reaction - such as whether a potion vial breaks, a rope snaps, or a lantern tips over - use a Probability Roll. You, the DN, decides the likelihood. Common examples: 50% or TN 10, and DN or player rolls once to resolve it.

Probability Rolls keep play fast, fair, and grounded in chance rather than player stats.

Usage Tip: You can roll percentage dice for simplicity or use a TN roll for percentage d20 if you want consistency with other mechanics i.e. 50% chance, roll a 10 or greater on a twenty-sided die.

Tip: You, the DN, determines when a probability roll is necessary.

Common Probability Rolls

Torch blown out by wind : 25%
Potion vial breaks on hard fall : 33%
Lantern glass cracks when dropped : 50%
Rope snaps under strain : 20%
Scroll damaged by water : 40%
Bowstring frays or snaps : 15%
Oil flask leaks in pack : 10%
Ration spoils after several wet days : 30%
Map ruined by exposure or fire spark : 35%
Campfire catches nearby grass : 20%
Bridge plank breaks under weight : 25%